Future SP Trader Performance
SP Trader Fund is not satisfied making blanket warnings to clients regarding the uncertainty involved in projecting future results from past actual performance.
We, SP Trader, believe measuring uncertainty in future performance is critical to making informed investment decisions before putting hard - earned money in harm’s way.
The actual trades history in SP Trader Fund’s portfolio strategy involve over a thousand trades, allowing estimates of Confidence limits* on performance at a given level of probability.
Performance metrics corresponding to lower and upper confidence limits are shown at the right, representing levels below or above in which there is less than a 5% probability of occurance based on past results.
The figure to the right shows a compounded equity curve for an Investment Futures Growth Fund investment with brackets representing upper and lower confidence limits.
Respectable performance even at the lower confidence limit indicates that there is a high probability of investment success, though there is no guarantee of such success.
Most fund managers cannot provide this information to clients. As a result, there is a very real danger that favorable historical results are merely lucky spikes within a very diffuse probability distribution that may even extend to negative territory.
| Performance metric | Lower Confidence Limit* |
Upper Confidence Limit* |
| Average simple annual return, % | 37.4 | 154.2 |
| Compound annual return, % | 44.7 | 194.3 |
| Annualized standard deviation, % | 21.6 | 10.6 |
| Max drawdown magnitude (100 yrs), % | 20.0 | 1 |
| Longest drawdown (100 yrs), months | 20 | 4 |